Credit: Me :D

From Meteors to Space Safety:

Dynamical Models and Radar Measurements of Space Objects


Daniel Kastinen

Credit: Me :D

Dynamics in the solar system

  • Chaotic motion
  • Wide range of stability times
  • Diverse range of effects

    • Distributions become important

Dynamics in the solar system

Meteoroid streams and meteor showers

Credit: www.meteorshowers.org

Meteoroid streams and meteor showers

Credit: Cody Limber

The big picture

The big picture

    Meteors and meteoroids
    example scenario

  • Analyse radar data
  • Meteoroid parameters and orbit
  • Propagate orbit distribution backwards
  • Associate to a parent body
  • Model meteoroid stream
  • Propagate stream forwards
  • Predict/model detections

The big picture

    Similar examples

  • Meteors and meteoroids

    • Cometary meteoroid stream

  • Near-Earth objects

    • History and future

  • Space debris

    • Fragmentation event

The big picture

    Topical division of my work

  1. Meteors and meteoroids
  2. Near-Earth objects
  3. Space debris

To reach the big picture

    Three main tasks

  • Data → Models + realistic uncertainties
  • Implement statistical methods in dynamical simulations
  • Connect and apply the above (with the state-of-the-art)

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Meteoroid stream simulations

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

I.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2017.

Credit: Cody Limber

Credit: Nathan Myhrvold

  • 2011 More visual (>1 mm)

    • Unexpected outburst:

  • 2012 More radar (<1 mm)
  • Predicted outburst 2018
    (was later observed)

  • II.

    Kastinen, D., 2019.

    Improve efficiency of simulations
    (~1 order of mag)

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Radar meteor analysis

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Credit: University of Colorado Boulder's Antarctic Meteor Radar

Results improved the
new analysis

    How to handle wave vector ambiguities?

    When does interferometry break down?

  • Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2020.

    Simulated the interferometry

  • Kastinen, D., Kero, J., Kozlovsky, A., Lester, M., 2021.

    Tested and validated simulations on a conventional meteor radar in Sodankylä

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Applied the new analysis on

Shigaraki Middle and Upper Atmosphere (MU) radar, Japan

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

V.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

Many upgrades to the algorithms

Model parameter distributions for each meteor

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

V.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

V.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons (Seahen)

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

V.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons (Lasunncty)

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

VI.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

High-altitude detections

Results

A. Meteors and meteoroids

VI.

Kastinen, D., Kero, J., 2022.

High-altitude detections

Results

B. Near-Earth objects

Results

B. Near-Earth objects

EISCAT 3D

    VII.

    Kastinen, D., Tveito, T., Vierinen, J., Granvik, M., 2020.

    Meteoroids

  • Detect 60 – 1200 / year before atmospheric entry

    • Near-Earth objects

  • Track 10 - 30 / year

    • Minimoons

  • Discover 7 / year
  • Track ~10%

Results

C. Space debris

Results

C. Space debris

Kosmos-1408 destruction:

Russian anti-satellite weapon

Results

C. Space debris

Kosmos-1408 destruction:

Russian anti-satellite weapon

Credit: AstroDyn on YouTube

Results

C. Space debris

Photo: Lars-Göran Vanhainen

Results

C. Space debris

Results

C. Space debris

VIII.

Kastinen, D.,Vierinen J.,Grydeland T.,Kero J., 2022.

Results

C. Space debris

VIII.

Kastinen, D.,Vierinen J.,Grydeland T.,Kero J., 2022.

New size estimation method

Results

C. Space debris

Credit: ESA

  • 18 cm aluminium slab
  • 1.7 g aluminium sphere
  • Impact velocity 6.8 km/s

    • (orbit velocity ~8 km/s)

Results

C. Space debris

Photo/map: Craig Heinselman, Derek McKay

Results

C. Space debris

Photo/map: Craig Heinselman, Derek McKay

Results

C. Space debris

Catalogue differences
Semi-major axis [km] Eccentricity Inclination [deg]
18.140 0.006 1.406
0.607 0.008 1.026
0.503 0.003 0.577
2.335 0.009 0.826
...

But what did I actually DO?

But what did I actually DO?

Summary of my work

    Meteors and meteoroids

  • October Draconids successfully modelled
  • Meteoroid stream simulations improved
  • Handle ambiguous & noisy interferometry
  • New meteor head echo analysis pipeline
  • High-altitude meteors confirmed

    Space debris

  • Observed the Kosmos-1408 debris
  • Determine size distribution
  • Performed initial orbit determination
    using dual beamparks

    Near-Earth objects

  • Simulated EISCAT 3D performance
  • Promising outlook

    Other contributions

  • 6 open source software packages
  • 3 ESA projects and 1 SNSA project
  • 2 Master theses and 3 internships
  • Foundation for future research

Overview

Subjects

Advantages

Challenges
  • Signal analysis
  • Radar technology
  • Solar-system dynamics
  • Chaos
  • Comet sublimation
  • Meteoroid ablation physics
  • Atmospheric physics
  • Statistical mathematics
  • Electromagnetic perturbations
  • Special and general relativity
  • ...
  • Lateral application
    • Orbit determination
    • Data analysis
    • Dynamic simulations
  • Connect state-of-the-art methods/results
  • Long-term foundation
  • Critical mass needed
  • Need to know a bit of everything, but no time to deep dive every subject
  • Co-operation and organisation

Future work

Photo: Johan Kero

Photo: Johan Kero

Future work

A few of my favourites

Meteors

Space surveillance & tracking

Near Earth Objects

Future work

A few of my favourites

Meteors

Space surveillance & tracking

Near Earth Objects
  • New MU radar meteor database
    + follow-up studies
  • PANSY radar meteor database
  • EISCAT 3D meteor program
  • EISCAT 3D support instruments
  • New dynamical simulation toolbox
  • Improve stream generation models

Future work

A few of my favourites

Meteors

Space surveillance & tracking

Near Earth Objects
  • Explore synergies with basic research
  • Improve size estimation methods
  • Scheduling optimization
  • EISCAT 3D space debris program
  • Publish more peer-reviewed material
  • Increase national engagement in space safety research

Future work

A few of my favourites

Meteors

Space surveillance & tracking

Near Earth Objects
  • EISCAT 3D NEO discovery and tracking program
  • (far away, but cool) Minimoon retrieval
  • NEO radar tomography
  • Meteoroid stream generation mechanisms

Other work

Programming

Language Comment lines Code lines
Python 11 27362 705
MATLAB 6 58739 838
C++ 8 62821 853
Fortran 77 5 018 6 915
C/C++ Header 998 5 149
Fortran 90 510 863
C 39 354

Instrumentation

Introduction

Space Objects

  • Comets
  • Meteoroids
  • Dust
  • Asteroids
  • Space debris & spacecraft

Credit: Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard

Comets

Credit: ESA-ESAC/Max Planck Institute for Solar System

Comets

Meteoroids

Photo: Torbjörn Lövgren

Meteoroids

Credit: ESO/P. Horálek

Dust

Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins APL - DART

Asteroids

Asteroids
&
Comets

Credit: NASA/JPL

Asteroids
&
Comets

Credit: ESA: Time to Act

Space debris

II.

Kastinen, D., 2019.

Targeted importance sampling

    Particles that reached Earth

  • Direct sampling (15 000): ~4 %
  • Large direct sampling (200 000): ~4 %
  • Analytic importance sampling (15 000): ~41 %
  • MCMC importance sampling (15 000): ~72 %

Report i.

Vierinen, J., Kastinen, D., Kero, J., Grydeland, T., McKay, D., Røynestad, E., Hesselbach, S., Kebschull, C., Krag, H., 2019

EISCAT 3D Performance Analysis. ESA/ESOC Technical Management.

VII.

Kastinen, D., Tveito, T., Vierinen, J., Granvik, M., 2020.